Rambling with two hours to go on calling Iowa. Clinton/Sanders in a virtual tie at 51/49; much the same on the other side with Cruz/Trump/Rubio at 28/25/22. I think this puts the bullet in the campaigns of the rest of the GOP field; excepting Carson, no one else is over 5%.

I’ve been hearing lots of analysis on what happens if so-and-so wins, but little about what happens in the event of a virtual tie. My gut feeling is that Trump beats Cruz and Rubio is the outside longshot, and that Clinton has the logistical edge but maybe not the voting edge.

As for November? Most rational Democrats will have no problem voting for either Clinton or Sanders regardless of primary preference, but I think most rational Republicans are going to have serious issues with any of the top three GOP. *Maybe* Rubio has an outside shot there, but if I agreed with him 100% I’d still have trouble pulling the lever for anyone who puts so much Christ into his campaign.

Am I wrong?

GQ reported that Cruz started a study group during his first year in Cambridge, but he announced that “he didn’t want anybody from ‘minor Ivies’ like Penn or Brown.”

GQ reported that Cruz started a study group during his first year in Cambridge, but he announced that “he didn’t want anybody from ‘minor Ivies’ like Penn or Brown.” Is Ted Cruz really an awful, terrible jerk?

What’s most fun about this argument is that you have to be an originalist to support it, so Cruz is getting bitten in the ass by his staunchest supporters.

Cruz not eligible to serve as president

What’s most fun about this argument is that you have to be an originalist to support it, so Cruz is getting bitten in the ass by his staunchest supporters.

http://ift.tt/1ODooR5

I recently debated (and pissed off) my friend Brian Greenberg by using the word fascist to describe the 2016 GOP. Politico comes to my rescue with actual supporting data.

http://ift.tt/1ZFungp

I recently debated (and pissed off) my friend Brian Greenberg by using the word fascist to describe the 2016 GOP. Politico comes to my rescue with actual supporting data.

The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You’re a Trump Supporter

This captured a concept I’ve been trying to understand and share for 30 years. Holly Wood is a genius.

http://ift.tt/1kZNuyN

This captured a concept I’ve been trying to understand and share for 30 years. Holly Wood is a genius.

What Can a Stupid, Mansplaining Comment Teach You About Neoliberalism?

Underwhelmed by the September Apple announcement? Me, too. My (perhaps surprising) reasons why at TidBITS.

http://ift.tt/1v43bGH TidBITS After September, Still Apple Watching and Waiting