Rambling with two hours to go on calling Iowa. Clinton/Sanders in a virtual tie at 51/49; much the same on the other side with Cruz/Trump/Rubio at 28/25/22. I think this puts the bullet in the campaigns of the rest of the GOP field; excepting Carson, no one else is over 5%.

I’ve been hearing lots of analysis on what happens if so-and-so wins, but little about what happens in the event of a virtual tie. My gut feeling is that Trump beats Cruz and Rubio is the outside longshot, and that Clinton has the logistical edge but maybe not the voting edge.

As for November? Most rational Democrats will have no problem voting for either Clinton or Sanders regardless of primary preference, but I think most rational Republicans are going to have serious issues with any of the top three GOP. *Maybe* Rubio has an outside shot there, but if I agreed with him 100% I’d still have trouble pulling the lever for anyone who puts so much Christ into his campaign.

Am I wrong?