As of tonight, I’m officially nervous. All three Democratic candidates (factoring in Bloomberg’s dropping now that his coronation is cancelled) may very well be electable, but the two front-runners have terrifying game theory negatives.
Bernie might get to the convention with voter wind at his back, but he’s never going to win over the party faithful—which means begrudging support from the people who actually do work on the ground in parallel with the presidential campaign. Joe might have superdelegates and the party establishment in his pocket (along with, it must be said, key voter demographics), but if he arrives at the convention with anything less than an outright majority, we all find out how many Bernie voters are Bernie voters, and will ditch for Jill Stein or stay home.
Remember those Bernie guys who tried to make the 2016 convention a circus? They’re still around. They won’t take a Biden pseudo-win quietly. And if Bernie really is sailing on young and new voters, well, they’re the first ones who’ll ditch the general if they can’t vote for their guy.
That’s not to say that I think either Bernie or Biden are toast—contrary to the myth that many Democrats buy into that Trump is sparkles and magic, I still believe that incompetent leadership leads to bad results, and I still believe that we’ll see them before November in ways that Fox News can’t paper over. But it could still be a nailbiter against the worst president we’ve ever had.
So my advice to Warren: stay in the damn race and stop trying to win. You can’t out-Bernie Bernie and you don’t want to tack to Biden. What you can do: start running ranked-choice voting polls in all fifty states and release them all. Now that Pete, Amy, and Mike are toast, there’s one and only one compromise candidate, and that’s you.
That was your pre-primary strength: the politics of Bernie, the pragmatism of Biden or Hillary, and the demeanor of Muhammad Ali. You hit the stump saying that you’ll support any candidate who shows up at the convention with a majority before superdelegates weigh in—but you wave around polls showing that you’re the preferred second choice of both wings of the Democratic electorate. Do you have any doubt you’re not?
Here’s the thing: your support may not be wide enough to win primaries, but it’s damned deep, and the people who support you are all in. You need to keep them going, keep them energized, and get enough of them to avoid jumping ship to keep yourself viable as the alternative. Biden and Bernie will never be that person—and may wreck the party or the election going head-to-head. The common ground between those two is a DMZ minefield. The third option is necessary. You’re it.
Speaking for myself: I’m Bernie politics all the way, but as I’ve written before, I think he’ll be a bad president. I think Biden’s presidency will continue the 40-year trend of fixing Republican mistakes, lukewarm successes, and no inspiring wins, that lead to Republican reversal of our gains (and then some) immediately after. But I think he’ll be a better president. So I have no idea which lever I’d pull in April.
I hope I don’t have to decide.