Got this by email last week. My favorite part of this is that Sky News is a Rupert Murdoch network.
Maybe that’s your problem right there
This is from a hotel in my neighborhood. If you can’t make out the plaque, it says “Loss Prevention Office.”
And the button’s in one piece again
This is from a bric-a-brac shop in Adams Morgan. Makes me think that someone is picturing a post-apocalyptic 37th and Locust.

More PowerBall musings
The Multi-State Lottery Association has recently changed the odds for PowerBall, so I thought I’d update my earlier post. Summary of earlier statements: even though PowerBall, like most lotteries, is rigged to return fifty cents on the dollar, there is some jackpot size at which point it is theoretically a better than 100% return on a bet. (Presuming the ability to play an infinite number of times; in all tests of this kind, a small number of trials will show anomalous results. In PowerBall, that basically means that everyone’s lifetime play will be statistically anomalous.)
The new rules have made it even harder to win the big jackpot, and likewise for the smaller wins. The sole concession to the player is that the five-ball hit without the PowerBall has been increased to $200,000, so now it’s theoretically possible to win a million dollars without hitting the PowerBall draw (five out of five with a 5x PowerPlay multiplier).
In any case, if you play PowerBall without making the PowerPlay bet ($2 for a ticket versus $1), you are getting incorrect odds and hence contributing to the state when the jackpot is below $232,292,812. (Assuming cash payout in one lump sum; variations on the value of this prize in relation to the advertised jackpot not accounted for. There is also a bonus pool on the 5 ball win with no PowerBall when the jackpot increases more than $25m in any one game; also not included.)
The PowerPlay still improves the overall bet—a $2 bet increases the return on any non-jackpot win at least 2x, up to 5x. There used to be 380% return on this bet for any win; this has been lowered to 350%. Regardless, the jackpot needs to be “only” $189,520,398 to be an even game with this bet.
What I find interesting about this is that it shows the utter irrationality of PowerBall players. That is, the rule of design of most gambling is to provide selective reinforcement; provide the player with small wins on the road to taking the house edge. This is difficult when the house edge is as huge as it is with state lotteries, but you can still work this into the design. With PowerBall, every revision of the game makes it harder to win, therefore creating much larger jackpots at the expense of the small wins that the players used to receive.
In other words, people play PowerBall when they can win a sizeable fraction of a billion dollars, and they stay away when the win is “only” say, $30 million. This is actually mathematically correct, but I doubt most players apply the mathematics to this. From the player perspective, is a win of $15 million any less life-changing than a win of $100 million? Yet, that’s what draws people in.
Likewise, they don’t seem to mind a string of losses like most gamblers. In the current game, if you play every game (104 times a year), if you made even a small win more than twice a year, you’d be lucky. Back in 1999 or so I won enough in four drawings straight to pick up another ticket and a pack of smokes. That should happen now once every 17,300 years or so.
So my guess is that the PowerBall attracts even more strongly a sort of non-gambler gambler, which is to say that the people buying tickets aren’t really buying tickets to win per se, but they’re buying a ticket to dream about what they’d do with the money for the days until the drawing. This has been measured before, and also indicates that twice a week is about as often as you want to run a game of this kind. It also suggests that in ten years we’ll be seeing lotteries with billion-to-one odds against and regular demiannual prizes of a few hundred million. Which should be enough for a few tanks of gas.
If you have something to share with the class, George….
Just when I think I can’t be amazed at who’s running the show anymore:

Excerpt from the Editor & Publisher story: “In what seems destined to become one of the most yakked about photos of the month, if not year, a Reuters photographer today seems to have captured President George W. Bush scribbling a note to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during a session at the United Nations. On the note is a message revolving around the need to take a ‘bathroom break.'” Original photo here.
The Lord helps those who draw to a gutshot
You know you’re playing too much poker (and are a bit too into zero-sum game theory) when you see a bumper sticker that says, “God bless the entire world, no exceptions”, and you think, “well, in that case, it’s a wash.”
Clearly I need more coffee
So I’m reading a manual for this network analysis software I’m testing, and I come across this passage: “You could think of a network packet analyzer as a measuring device used to examine what’s going on inside a network cable, just like a volunteer is used by an electrician to examine what’s going on inside an electric cable.”
Actually, if you read that twice, it says “voltmeter”. But I think volunteer works better.
A flood of anger, a drought of compassion
By way of my normally rational pal Brian, I am pointed to an essay by the less commonly rational Lileks as a shining example of some points that Brian had stated earlier.
Which leads me to think—it’s not the Democrats or the liberals that are experiencing blinding partisanship. It’s the Republicans who are allowing their partisan fervor to blind themselves to a level of incompetence that would lead them to spurn a local 7-11 that showed the same traits.
First, and let’s be clear here: it’s a straw man argument that the left is blaming George Bush for the hurricane itself. I have heard some people on the left say that there is some correlation between Katrina and Kyoto, which is clearly a load of horse droppings. The purpose of Kyoto is to prevent the Katrinas of 2025, so the sole connection one can draw between the 2005 version and the actions of the last five years is one of poetic justice. Or injustice, since those who profited from the spiking of Kyoto are profiting from the inundation of New Orleans.
Therefore, I’m not expecting to defend the entire political left from that small subset of us who are ignorant of science. If the Republicans wish to engage me on that score, please, feel free. Between intelligent design and your environmental policies—which will provide a direct causal culpability to future disasters—I’ve got an armory here and you’re stocked with snowballs.
Second, normally this is considered to be a topic that is worthless for debate, but I have to ask the governing right: what do you believe the government is for? As a denizen of Washington and a nominal traveler of the world, I’m exposed to more theoretical and practical forms of government than most, and just about everyone (except the anarchists) from Cato on up believes that a federal government takes on responsibility for the safety of her citizens. Yet all I’m hearing from the right is how those poor, deluded people in New Orleans shouldn’t have sat around waiting for Uncle Sugar to show up and save them.
A libertarian will tell you that a federal government should be vigorous in the face of a natural disaster. But apparently the Republican point of view is that “strong national security” means killing every person who might do us harm, but says nothing about actual safety. I can expect that from the Millennarians who support the idea of God’s wrath proceeding unabated over humans (and forgetting that this was why we started forming cities and governments 20,000 years ago in the first place), but it sounds odd coming from those who are not counting on Messianic Return to save us.
Third, let’s talk about anger. Brian and Lileks seem to buy thoroughly into the theory that those of us who are angry at Bush are enjoying playing the “blame game”. Lileks puts forth the theory, approvingly quoted by Brian, that in the event of the next terrorist attack, the left will swarm out with righteous anger to attack the president, and implies that we are just waiting for the opportunity.
Can I just say? That’s simply evil. Horrifying. Disgusting. Dehumanizing of everyone who doesn’t share your support of the administration. If you want one hint as to why political discourse has degraded to where it is, take a moment to determine why the above didn’t spent one moment resting in the rational thought centers of your brain, and know that the fault lies within yourselves. You will not be able to engage in debate with people you regard as animals, and clearly that’s how you think of us.
That being said, anger has its uses, and what strikes me is that the opposition seems to think that because we’re angry, therefore we must be incoherent. Whereas I note that there are damn good reasons to be angry, in politics as in life, and utter mismanagement of a disaster ranks among the first of these.
No, I cannot prove that the funding cuts to the levees directly led to their breach. It is possible that fully funded levees would also have been destroyed. However, it is true that cutting these funds increased the probability of such a disaster occurring, and so in the face of that same disaster it is rational to accrue some fault to the people who made those decisions.
No, I cannot demonstrate that Clinton’s FEMA would have been more effective at preventing (or at the very least, not causing) the post-disaster atrocities we have witnessed. All I can do is point to the near-unanimous statements that that FEMA was seen to be the best-organized and best-run such agency we’ve ever had. As opposed to this one, which cut the emergency communications lines of neighboring counties.
No, I cannot answer for the actions of state and local officials. It was the local sheriffs who turned away pedestrian refugees trying to flee the city, although initial reports are that federal troops and private security firms have done likewise. I too wonder where the buses were before the storm hit. That being said, I also recognize that municipal bus drivers are not emergency staff, and so in the event of a disaster it could be considered humanitarian to tell them to get the hell out of town.
But on that point—while we can argue the question of philosophical responsibility as long as we like, as a legal matter the issue is settled. Once the governor and the president declared New Orleans a disaster area, responsibility moved up the chain. The purpose of this is to create a single point of responsibility; in a disaster, you do not want federal, state, and local officials answering to different masters. Two people both trying to do good can do harm. So as stated in federal law, the sole source of command and responsibility was FEMA days before the levees broke.
But all of that is still being rational. Let’s do a little anger here.
This is not like other things. This is another 9/11, and it proves that four years to the day we have completely forgotten the lessons we should have taken from 9/11. The lesson that most people learned, apparently, is that people want to kill us and we have to go slaughter them first.
The lesson we should have learned is that living on Earth is dangerous, from both natural and manmade events, and that we have collectively formed communities, governments and nations to protect ourselves. Humans are not armed with fangs or claws or wings, and having solely our brains as our evolutionary means of defense, we use them. That the role of government at any level is to protect its citizens should be so self-evident as to not need debate.
This is the first time we’ve lost a city to natural disaster in a century. Our technological and financial resources are a dozen orders of magnitude more vast than those available to the governments of San Francisco 1906 and Chicago 1871. And yet we still left people to die in their own feces in government-created camps.
As I have said many times in the last four years, I am stunned by how willing my countrymen are to accept things in America that we have prided ourselves as being above. Many accept what takes place here because they believe that no other America could have done better, than whom we elect makes no difference, and that we cannot expect any differently.
In my view, this is treason.
Finally, for my Democratic and leftist friends: you need to get over one article of faith, the idea that eventually there will come a reckoning and the great mass of people who disagree with us will come to our side in a mighty wave. What this month should prove to you is that there is nothing so corrupt, no ineptitude so vast, no wholesale abdication of responsibility so calumnous, to cause this to occur. The frame of the supporters of the president is such that these events only cleave them to him more strongly.
Therefore: stop bitching. This frame exists due to twenty years of hard work by Norquist et al., and will remain until we undo it. Our point is that George Bush cannot keep us safe. This is how he was reelected, and this is where his failures are manifest. Use logic where possible, use emotion where necessary, and use passion to keep yourselves going. Choose your targets well, and don’t waste energy on those who refuse to listen; you can only defeat a framework when an individual chooses to leave it.
We have a message to take to the Christians, who can see the lack of charity from the government; to the poor, who can see their equals left to die and then blamed for it; to the traditional conservatives, who feel their government should be stronger in the face of disaster.
This is not anger, this is not partisan politics. This is about death and misery, and preventing future generations from repeating our failures. This is our failure, every American’s. We are Americans. We can do better.
And don’t forget the free swimming lessons
Barbara Bush, formerly known as “America’s favorite grandma”, about the Katrina victims as quoted in Editor and Publisher:
Almost everyone I’ve talked to says we’re going to move to Houston. What I’m hearing which is sort of scary is they all want to stay in Texas. Everyone is so overwhelmed by the hospitality. And so many of the people in the arena here, you know, were underprivileged anyway, so this–this [she chuckles slightly] is working very well for them.
Next, let’s cut the fire budget and replace them with cardboard
At least the firefighters from across the nation who assembled for FEMA emergency support are being put to good use.
But as specific orders began arriving to the firefighters in Atlanta, a team of 50 Monday morning quickly was ushered onto a flight headed for Louisiana. The crew’s first assignment: to stand beside President Bush as he tours devastated areas.
“Get off the fucking freeway”
Also via Metafilter, an amazing report from two EMS responders who attended the worst-planned conference in American history.
But now we have the movie
Via Metafilter, highly worthwhile article by a reporter who tried and failed to publish a book warning of the danger in New Orleans.
We’re from the government, and we’re here to help 83% of you
Macintouch reports that the FEMA web site requires IE 6 in order to fill out the form for disaster assistance.
Why Mac users are more destructive
Via Macintouch, a submission from Chuck Gaudette about the history of a chain saw manufacturer:
During the next several decades, the company continued to grow and expand into new markets. In 1958, the company name was changed to McCulloch Corporation. In 1968, McCulloch introduced the Power Mac 6; weighing only 8.5 pounds fully fueled; it was the world’s lightest chain saw. The affordable Mini Mac 1, introduced in 1972 opened the chain saw market to the casual user.
The view from the ground, versus the air
I’ve already refrained a few times on some Bush commentary regarding New Orleans, but Bitch PhD says a few things for me. Nice juxtaposition of commentary from W, alongside the commentary from the mayor.
Who not to steal from
Interesting post via Slashdot about tracking down the theft of a mobile phone. More to the point, illustrative of the kinds of data that modern cell phones move back and forth, and how they can be traced.
See? It’s good for you.
Reuters reports that coffee is the leading source of antioxidants for Americans.
In which case, I must be damn near anaerobic.
Not the most significant blog entry I’ll ever write
All I have to say is, whoever it was at the Hershey Foods Corporation who decided to drop the lemon flavor from the standard package of Jolly Ranchers needs to be embedded in a block of blue raspberry and left on an anthill to think about the error of his ways.
Maybe the problem was too much barking
I’m catching up on a Washington Post article from May 22 today, titled “Contracting Rush For Security Led To Waste, Abuse”. It basically documents how DHS and TSA got about $100 million in value for every billion it spent. The following really jumped out at me:
The contract for airport bomb-detection machines ballooned to at least $1.2 billion from $508 million over 18 months. The machines have been hampered by high false-alarm rates…. After the bomb-detection machines were put in airports across the country, some of them began to register false alarms. Screeners were forced to open and hand-check bags. Lines backed up, infuriating passengers and airline managers. The false-alarm rates have since come down, according to counter-terrorism experts and government scientists familiar with the machines. They say the reason is that the machines have been calibrated to be less sensitive, cutting the false alarms but also making the machines less effective. “When used the way they’re supposed to be used, they’re almost as good as a dog,” said a government technology expert intimately familiar with the machines, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
Okay. The article doesn’t say how many machines were purchased for $1.2 billion, but it seems to me that if they’re almost as good as a dog at their best, somebody might have asked how much a dog costs.
Today’s entry for buzzword bingo
So — have you been wondering just what people are talking about when they say that Ajax is the hottest thing since BitTorrent? No? Then you must not be reading the same websites I do.
The PowerPoint slide: Ajax describes using a static web page with dynamic content — i.e., Google Maps, which fetches map data and sticks it into an otherwise unchanging page. My personal fave Ajax app is Backpack (although GMaps is a close second).
If you’re curious to know more, check out the excellent Wikipedia article, or refer to the essay that gave Ajax its name.