Now that we’ve had a week to let this sink in, it’s time to go to the phantom mailbag and answer all the big questions that no one has been emailing me.

If I’m reading your last essay correctly, you’re saying that for most current Mac users this won’t make a difference at all.

Yes, that’s right.

So why is the Mac community filled with so much gnashing of teeth over this?

John Siracusa put it better than I can. If you’re not technically inclined, just read his conclusion. If you like the gory details, read the whole thing. I’m nervous about the switch, but for reasons that have nothing to do with the Macs themselves.

So why are you nervous?

I’ll get back to that in a bit.

I’ve got a Mac that I’m thinking of upgrading, but now I’m considering waiting for the Intel Macintoshes. Should I?

I have a question for you. Are you insane?

As it stands, you have the option of buying hardware that was perfectly decent a week ago (and hence is still perfectly decent), or waiting 12-18 months to buy the first generation of the new hardware that will replace it. Let me repeat that: first generation.

Now, as it happens, my last two Macintoshes were both first-gen equipment. Apple does a better job than most companies of not releasing lemons that have to be fixed in the next release. But it’s always true that the first model of a new family of computers will simply have problems that won’t be discovered until a million people take a whack at ’em. In the case of the 17″ PowerBook, I didn’t get burned—this is still a damn fine computer. But my Titanium 15″ did get bitten by several bugs that don’t exist in the newer models. So I tell my non-technically inclined clients to be a bit gunshy about version 1.0 of any hardware, and I’ll be making that same recommendation next year.

If you need a new Mac, you need a new Mac today, not next year. If you want a new Mac because you want a new toy, you probably don’t want to wait around for that long. The sole exception is if you’re considering a top-of-the-line dual G5 tower; in that case, you might want to consider tiding yourself over with something less expensive and saving the rest of the money for later.

I’m thinking of switching to the Mac. Are you going to call me insane for thinking of waiting until I can run Mac OS on my existing computer?

Probably. My prediction that Mac OS X will eventually be a sanctioned option for your computer is pure speculation, and using a shoehorn hack might be far more trouble than it’s worth. If you’re only vaguely curious about Mac OS and you’re willing to wait until 2008 or so, then sure, be my guest. Otherwise, pick up an iMac or a Mac mini and join the party whenever you like.

What about next year, when the Intel computers are nearly ready?

Well, that depends. Really, it doesn’t matter what I say, Apple’s going to see a hit on their sales here. But Steve promised us all a bunch of new PowerPC equipment between now and then, and I can’t imagine that Apple will be happy resting on their laurels for another year. If the new pre-Intel computers rock, buy one. If you’re less than excited by them, hang back.

For what it’s worth, my workhorse computer is a first-generation PowerBook 17″, circa 2003. It’s showing its age and I could use more horsepower, so my plan is to pick up an iMac G5—which would be the first desktop computer I’ve bought since 1996. The laptop does what I need on the go, and I’ve got the geek skills to offload my heavy CPU needs to the home office no matter where I am. That plan is still green since last week, because I know I’m not willing to wait another year. But if it were May 2006, I’d be looking things over first.

I run my business on Macs. What should I do?

As above, if you need upgrades, then upgrade as needed. In fact, there are two reasons why you might want to deliberately upgrade to the last PowerPC models:

• You have a bunch of computers you’re using in a small space. Early word I’m hearing is that Intel architectures run hotter than Macs, and so I have some lingering concerns that the first generation of Intel Macs might show the same problems. (Of course, once Apple Engineering gets a crack at it, maybe this problem will go away.)
• You’re running custom software that you paid an arm and a leg for. If this was done within an application program that will be upgraded (i.e., a FileMaker Pro 7 database), you’ve got nothing to worry about. But if you paid for an app to be built from scratch, you might have to either buy it again, or have it running under the Rosetta PowerPC emulator. A small subset of people in this category are going to be in a rough place over this—delay the pain by getting the best PowerPCs you can buy.

You still haven’t said why you’re nervous.

It comes down to the guy I was talking to, the guy running a Mac business. He’s got one more problem he probably hasn’t considered.

See, I’ve been consulting for twelve years, and I’ve worked in various fields in the industry. And one thing I’ve seen is that niche markets tend to attract a certain baseline of quality. Translation: I’ve never met an incompetent Macintosh consultant, although of course there are variations in skill.

But in wider markets, where there are lots of job openings and anyone can teach themselves something in two weeks, that falls to pieces. When I meet a Windows consultant, a web designer, or a PHP programmer, I assume he’s an idiot until I see his work. It’s just law of averages—I’ve met too many Windows consultants who should have restraining orders placed against them so they can’t touch an ATM. Too many web designers for whom usability and accessibility are foreign concepts. And I’m thinking that starting next year, I might have to say the same thing about my newest colleagues.

Just look at the market. More of you are coming to the Mac. We’ve already seen one wave of converts from the Unix crowd, but they at least showed up in both the end-user and the professional services areas with serious geek cred. But that green line isn’t all tech weenies, and as consultants decide to shift into new markets, they’re going to follow the money. If, as I expect, there’s going to be a continued shift to Mac OS, then you’ll also see a shift in professionals catering to sell you services.

And do you think they’re going to tell you they started using Mac OS last Tuesday? Hardly. They’ll resort to the standard marketing obfuscation and tell you that their shop has been Mac-expert for years—which means that there’s one guy with a beeper in the home office who gets called when the field guys are stumped.

A year after that, and existing Mac experts will have the same problem I now see in web design. Many of you will have spent lots of money for incompetent consultants and solutions that don’t solve a thing. So when you call us (by sheer random chance—remember, it’s difficult for the client to judge who’s good and who’s not), you’ll have been once-burned and twice-shy, and it will be that much harder for us to set up the pleasant win-win consulting arrangement that we try to shoot for.

Fortunately, there’s a simple solution: hire me now. Or one of my colleagues. That is, start digging your well before the rest of the world gets thirsty, and line up the professional talent that you might need next year right now. Speaking for myself, I’m glad to talk to people who don’t have business today, on the premise that it makes next years’ prospecting cycle that much easier. So find yourself an expert, get comfortable that he really does have the expertise you need (and good consultants should tell you when they don’t), and have him in your Rolodex for when you need it. Because in a year or two, that job’s going to get a heck of a lot more expensive. Incompetent people usually know enough to bill by the hour, and the only way to determine incompetence is with N hours invested. That’s your money we’re talking about.

Obviously, I’m thrilled at the idea of Macs with 20% or 30% market share. I’ll believe it when I see it, but I’m thrilled with the idea. More users mean more potential clients, more money for developers, and better experiences for everyone. But there have been real professional benefits for both my colleagues and clients to being part of an outsider crowd, and I’ll be sorry to see those go.

[This essay is part of The Red and the Blue discussion: Apple Switches to Intel.]