Well, looks like Jeff’s reads were pretty much spot on. The New York Times reports that Joe is a registered Republican, along with quite a lot of other information about Joe that really isn’t any of our frickin’ business — and so the poor bastard is probably not entirely thrilled about his 15 minutes.
Key graf that made my day: “You know, I’ve always wanted to ask one of these guys a question and really corner them and get them to answer a question for once instead of tap dancing around it….”
Followup notes to the debate.
First, it’s amazing how different the debate looked to me on PBS, where there was no splitscreen and the McCain reaction shots came from a lateral camera that showed Obama in profile and McCain in 3/4s. I wrote that I couldn’t tell if McCain was angry, but that he looked like he was trying to keep it under control.
Switch to the splitscreen clips like the one below, and I’m willing to take that back. There are more tics on display here than at a Saturday night 2 AM 2-4 Hold ’em game after everyone’s been doing shots.
Incidentally, at 1:57 in this video, you get to see a McCain tongue jut, which was introduced to me in Joe Navarro’s Read ‘Em and Reap. Navarro says it’s something people do when they think they’ve gotten away with something; McCain uses it when he gets to toss in a rehearsed talking point, both in debates and in media interviews. (He uses it here while Obama is speaking, so it means something else in that context. It’s also a more languid jut than usual, which also implies a secondary meaning.)
Speaking of tongues, it struck me as odd that McCain, in the post-debate wave to the audience, put up his arms and stuck out his tongue, smiling. It was like Richard Nixon meets Gene Simmons. A photo circulating this morning indicates why you perhaps shouldn’t do that when you’re running for president.
Finally, here’s the interview with Joe the Plumber. If you haven’t watched it yet, really, do so. I’ll wait.
What’s striking to me is how respectfully Obama answers the man, and how thoroughly. What’s more striking is Joe’s body language:
0:52: Joe scratches his head and cheek, and drops his arms. That’s a comfort signal; he’s aware he’s on national television, and it’s making him nervous. Perhaps he’s consciously aware that he crossed his arms — that’s a read that most people know about, and most people don’t want to be that visibly defensive.
1:16: “Well, the reason that I asked you about the American Dream….” Actually, that’s the first mention of it. Again, implies that Joe had a prepared question he didn’t get to articulate.
1:40: Joe’s hands go on his hips. More of a comfort stance, less defensive than crossed arms. Obama starts asking specific questions about his business.
1:57: Joe starts to put his hands up, doesn’t try to say anything. Obama agrees with him when Joe says he works hard. Joe agrees with Obama when he talks about people working hard making less than Joe does.
2:39: Licked lips and tight smile after Obama says that Joe would have done better ten years ago.
2:47: Obama: “we’ve cut taxes a lot for folks like me who make a lot more than two-fifty”.
3:05: “I’m going to cut taxes more for folks who are most in need….” Joe leans back and looks up and right. I think he agrees with this more than he wants to, and the defensive rock is a shifting of his argument.
3:27: “It’s not that I want to punish your success.” Much more genuine smile from Joe.
3:37: Joe asks about a flat tax. He’s well-informed, slightly switching the terms of the discussion. When Joe looks skeptical of Obama’s claim of a 40% sales tax being needed, Obama catches it and immediately explains.
4:46: Another genuine smile when Obama says, “even if I don’t get your vote”.
5:15: When Obama starts talking about zero capital gains taxes for small businesses, Joe’s head cocks. He’s clearly listening to something he didn’t know before.
So, what do I make of this? First, that it’s somewhat fascinating that this exchange has been boiled down to Obama’s use of the phrase “spread the wealth” in the talking heads section of the media. This back-and-forth between a candidate and an informed voter who is hostile on an issue is probably the epitome of what we want retail politics to be. But if Joe hadn’t been used as a ping-pong ball last night, few of us would have seen this.
Second, I’m guessing based on what Joe prepared to ask that he’s probably a solid McCain voter. (Granted, interviews with Joe today help reinforce this idea.) But what Obama does here is engage him and try to find areas of persuasion — and to a small extent, it succeeds. Obama and Joe both acknowledge this dynamic when Obama says he won’t get his vote; Joe’s smile is tacit agreement. But I think Joe got something different than he was expecting, and just maybe that changes his point of view — if not in November, then maybe between here and 2012.
I don’t remember seeing a politician ever doing this so well before. (Perhaps I’d feel differently if I had YouTube in 1992.) Obama is present in the moment of his discussion with Joe, and my gut feeling — unfortunately, no camera angle on Obama’s expressions to support this — is that he really gives a damn. I can see Bush and McCain doing this with their supporters — but with the opposition? Snowball’s chance in hell.
9:10 PM: wasn’t going to liveblog tonight, but I have to say — what’s up with McCain tonight? Yeah, I get that the points he’s trying to make are a bit more brutal than he’s tried before, but his demeanor is just rambling and repetitive. He reminds me of Old Cranky Guy (who won’t let the young guy complete a sentence).
9:13 PM: someone should have told McCain that his stripey tie makes weird moire patterns on non-HD sets. (Hmm… Obama’s too.)
9:16 PM: Bob signs on for neo-Hooverism. Obama signs on. McCain waves his magic wand to increase home values, but digresses from spending cuts before talking about his spending freeze (which apparently won’t freeze much after his exceptions). Trust him, he knows how to cut programs.
9:19 PM: Again with the overhead projector. John, it’s a planetarium projector. The one at the Franklin Institute constituted about 85% of my science education in elementary school. And it’s damn cool.
9:20 PM: I still don’t understand why a man in office for eight years submitted only five budgets.
9:21 PM: “If you wanted to run against George Bush…”, McCain’s rehearsed line, probably came about two months too late. He’s clearly pleased with himself, didn’t get to see if there was a tongue jut to go with it. What’s the over-under on whether McCain repeats himself in the next 70 minutes?
9:23 PM: “Even Fox News disputes it.” Okay, I laughed out loud when Obama said that.
9:24 PM: I don’t know what that puffy thing on the side of McCain’s face is, but it’s much puffier tonight. And McCain seems to enjoy talking over both Obama and the moderator.
9:25 PM: Bonus points for the “will you say this to his face” question. McCain whiffs the answer by talking about it’s because mean Barack wouldn’t talk to him 10 more times. Huh? Says that the problem is John Lewis. Yeah, it’s not about the people calling for presidential assassinations at McCain’s rallies. Three minutes in, McCain hasn’t said one word about what his campaign is saying.
9:28 PM: McCain lies about his campaign while discussing the conduct of his campaign. Wow, he really is turning to Sarah Palin for advice.
9:30 PM: McCain is pissed that he can’t afford to run ads during sporting events like Obama can.
9:33 PM: Geez, McCain cannot keep his mouth shut when Obama is talking. Am I crazy or is does this seem like it’s verging on psychological? And what the hell does military hats have to do with the point? Another lie: “I have repudiated every who’s out of line.” That’s about the most ridiculous statement he can make about it.
9:36 PM: Alright, we get to hear McCain going wingbat for the first time.
9:37 PM: I have also spent time being funded by Walter Annenberg. I guess I should be on the no-fly list, too.
9:39 PM: Does McCain realize that he just lost the point, and he’s just digging himself deeper now?
9:40 PM: “Why is your running mate better?” I heart Bob Schieffer.
9:42 PM: If I were a woman, I think I’d be really annoyed that McCain thinks Palin is my role model.
9:43 PM: “To sweep out the old-boy network and cronyism that I’ve fought against all these years.” That is a quote. Really, why tear down McCain when he’s doing it himself so well?
9:45 PM: Obama deliberately whiffs the Palin qualification question, but nice segue from autism to spending freeze. McCain sees Iraq uniting.
9:46 PM: Alright. The Republican administration just past spent $5 trillion more than they took in. If that doesn’t cause a national moratorium on Republicans calling Democrats spendthrifts, then we need to do some serious activism on the topic.
9:47 PM: The Republican just said, “you can’t just unilaterally renegotiate treaties”. Ibid.
9:49 PM: Obama again talks drilling the one year’s worth of oil we have offshore, which loses Jeff points, but he regains most of them by pointing out immediately that it’s an unsustainable idea.
9:51 PM: McCain, of course, implies that drilling at home will solve all our problems.
9:52 PM: There’s that tongue jut, when McCain said that Obama never went south. And his smile got wider. He’s running through his debate point checklist, but I think the problem is that it’s not about debating points, it’s about going for a clear win that he’s just not getting.
9:56 PM: Fill me in here: does anyone think it’s credible to compare a 2008 Democrat to a 1928 Republican?
9:59 PM: How does McCain get his clinics and programs during a spending freeze?
9:59 PM: Prediction: “Joe the Plumber” is going to be an Internet joke meme for the next eighteen months.
10:03 PM: I’ve realized what’s so creepy about McCain’s smile. He’s doing the best he can to seem bemused and confident, regardless of what’s being said. But we’re not discussing bemusing things. Compare that to Obama — he’s smiling in response to things McCain actually says. Otherwise, he seems, well, neutral.
10:05 PM: McCain continues to repeat things that, if not lies, are at least in direct conflict with what Obama says. And in that case, it comes down to what you say to support your assertions, and I think Obama is actually bothering to do that in a way that McCain isn’t.
10:08 PM: “I will find the best people in the world” for the Supreme Court. Another laugh out loud moment.
10:11 PM: Washington Monthly thinks McCain looks angry. No, I think he’s doing everything in his power not to look angry. Whether he is or not, I’m not sure. Wouldn’t blame him if he is, because he seems to be blowing it.
10:15 PM: John, being “eloquent” is not an insult. Is this supposed to win over the undecideds, that the other guy is too good?
10:20 PM: Pardon me if this is an unfair question, but how exactly is a retired soldier automatically qualified to teach children by virtue of his military service?
10:23 PM: McCain just forgot Michelle Obama’s name.
10:25 PM: After a strong middle, McCain is reverting to old man ramble in the homestretch.
10:37 PM: Thought Obama’s closing was surprisingly weak.
Overall: I think this could have gone for three hours. Much better discussion, much better television.
All the cool kids are doing it, so my thinking during the debate tonight:
9:06 PM: Neither one has any idea who they’re appointing Treasury Secretary, or they’re not saying. A bit surprising, that would make a difference in the coming weeks.
9:12 PM: Is it just me, or do you think that “cronies” are people that old people are more likely to have than middle-class people?
9:20 PM: Five George Bush budgets? Shouldn’t that number be eight? I like the hit on the $5 trillion increase since 2000, but I’m skeptical if people are actually taking in that number.
9:21 PM: And here’s your classic example of innumeracy: McCain talks about programs that are drops in the overall bucket. Does bipartisanship play as a reply when the question is “how can we trust either of you?”
9:23 PM: Wonder if Obama will bring up the McCain Medicare cuts in his rebuttal. Whoops, looks like Brokaw beat him to it.
9:24 PM: meta note, I was assuming McCain would try some game-changing approach tonight. If he is, it’s not on the table yet. So far, he’s fairly soporific. So is Obama, but he can afford to be.
9:26 PM: watch the body language in the audience. So far, I see two or three Obama skeptics, but 50/50 when McCain is talking. Waiting for a McCain audience shot to confirm this.
9:28 PM: how anyone thinks that any answer can be contained in one minute is absolutely beyond me.
9:29 PM: dayenu with the overhead projector, John.
9:31 PM: Is McCain wandering around aimlessly in the background?
9:33 PM: Noting that McCain’s line is “Americans can do it”, Obama’s is “more shared sacrifice.”
9:36 PM: McCain is comparing Obama to Hoover? Really? Does anyone remember who Hoover was? (You’d think McCain would.)
9:40 PM: Fortune 500 CEO is Obama’s overheard projector.
9:41 PM: So McCain is saying that he’s unpopular with both parties? Yeah, that’s a great selling point.
9:48 PM: Clearly, McCain didn’t vote for the bailout plan thanks to its goodies. No, wait….
9:52 PM: My question for both candidates: are there any problems that aren’t “major challenges that have to be solved in the next two years?” Sounds to me like the gestalt of all these issues is that we’re already halfway to hell.
9:57 PM: An hour in, and Obama and McCain camera angles aren’t showing the same audience members. I’m seeing much more blue background with McCain. Hard to compare audience reactions when you can’t see them.
10:00 PM: Cheap shot alert: I guess a 6,000-year-old Earth still has corners.
10:04 PM: Brokaw: explain the Obama and McCain Doctrines. You have 90 seconds. Go.
10:07 PM: I have trouble understanding why McCain thinks he’s perceived as the cool hand at the tiller.
10:08 PM: McCain is saying that staying in Iraq has improved our reputation and our ability to act elsewhere? That seems to be the corollary of his argument not to leave.
10:12 PM: Wait, am I crazy, or were many of the “Afghan freedom fighters” the people who went on to be warlords and Taliban extremists?
10:12 PM: I’ll freely admit that I’m concerned about Obama’s plans for expansion of the Afghan war, but it seems to me that he’s phrasing that belligerence as clearly and specifically as one could hope. What part of “as the Commander-in-Chief, I’ll act in favor of American sovereignty” doesn’t he understand? I thought Republicans were supposed to be solid behind that.
10:15 PM: McCain: “I’ll follow Osama to the gates of hell, and I know how to do it, but stay vewwy vewwy quiet while I’m hunting wabbits.”
10:18 PM: We have to do all sorts of things differently, but we have to maintain the same strategy. Huh? What am I missing here?
10:20 PM: Shorter McCain: “We’re not going to have another Cold War with Russia. Instead, it’s much better to risk a hot war with Russia.”
10:22 PM: Obama answer not much better. Am I being too harsh to both of them that I want better specifics in their ninety seconds?
10:24 PM: McCain, “if I say yes”, seems to think he’s already president? Can’t imagine that Obama could get away with that kind of phrasing.
10:26 PM: Funny, the bald guy in the red shirt with the question about Israel doesn’t look Jewish.
10:26 PM: McCain dodging the question on unilateral defense of Israel. Obama talking about nukes, also just saying that “all options are on the table”. Wish either one of them would point out that after a medium-sized nuclear attack on Israel, there’d be nothing left to defend — after that, it’d all be about retaliation over the smoking crater.
10:33 PM: Again with the “we’re really in the shitter” language from McCain. Want to go back and see if this has only been from him and Brokaw, or if Obama also joined in.
Initial response: I’d call this one pretty much a tie — that is, I think Obama’s answers were more thoughtful and responsive to the questions, but then, I would think that, so I might be wrong. But I’d also say a tie goes in Obama’s favor; working on the theory that McCain needs to do something to turn the electoral tide, he sure as hell didn’t have it prepped for this evening.